This study followed Philadelphia public school students who were enrolled in the 6th grade in 1996–97 through to 2003–04 (one year beyond on-time graduation) and identified four powerful predictors of falling off track to graduation:
- Attending school 80% or less of the time;
- Receiving a poor final behavior mark;
- Failing math; or
- Failing English
The research concluded that a sixth grade student with any of the four indicators has only a 10–20% chance of graduating with his/her peers.
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This research also serves as the basis for our project in North Philadelphia schools to create a comprehensive dropout prevention model with partners Johns Hopkins University, City Year, and Communities in Schools.
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